Controlling our destiny

Almond Board of Australia CEO TIM JACKSON gave the following state of the industry address at the 2026 Australian Almond Conference, held in Adelaide from October 13 to 15.

Let me start by saying, you are part of history. Never before has there been this many to an Australian Almond conference.

These are indeed exciting times, so congratulations to all. You are part of a horticultural powerhouse that continues to grow and evolve, yet retain the founding principles of collaboration and unity.

The directors of the Almond Board of Australia (ABA) have undergone an exhaustive strategic review process over the course of the past year.

The underlying collective goal during these discussions has been for industry, through the ABA being able to control its own destiny in whatever we do.

There has been acknowledgement that the scoreboard looks impressive, but a note that we have evolved into an organisation with an ever-expanding list of KPIs to meet.

So instead of doing a lot of things okay, the board narrowed the focus and prioritised.

It came up with four pillars to a new strategic plan for industry, Advocacy, Market development, Governance and Productivity.

A marketing session highlighted the global demand and successes in key markets like China and India and the opportunities that lie to the immediate north in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

Melissa Wyness and the team have rolled out a comprehensive plan that has attracted wide-spread interest within industry and beyond.

We know that driving demand is fundamental to grower viability.

So the focus isn’t so much on pure demand, but cultivating networks and relationships in markets that optimise demand value for processors and growers. The move into South-East Asia is a perfect example. It is no longer enough to roll into a trade show and stick the Australian almonds flag in the ground and wait for enquiries. We are much more pro-active and continue to leverage existing networks through Austrade, DFAT and our long established contacts to draw the right buyers into tailored events for meaningful discussions, rather than spending days filtering the genuine from the tyre kickers. It has been a stunning success and early reports of new business being won in these markets has helped justify the added support through the market diversification funding we have received.

The work of our ambassadors Poh, Kyle Chalmers and our dietitians Jemma O’Hanlon and Simone Austin feeds into our narrative around health, versatility and taste.

Over today and tomorrow we have sessions tailored to a wide range of areas on farm and in the market that acknowledge there are areas within the industry with room for improvement. There has to be.

Costs of production continue to rise.

Costs to process and market are up.

Yields could be better and variable crack-outs give rise to concern.

How do we stay ahead of the curve and where can we make the most meaningful difference to maintaining a sustainable future?

Production, growth and the challenges ahead

Let us have a look at the scoreboard for a start.

Plantings continue to grow.

The board in its wisdom supported independently commissioning the spatial mapping of the industry, firstly in 2023, and then again this year. LandIQ continue to demonstrate the value of the service they provide and despite the scepticism that says we have reached our ceiling on plantings, more and more trees are now in the ground.

As a result Goulburn Valley emerges as a new growing region. GoFarm lead the way, but if it works, the experiences in the Riverina, Riverland and Sunraysia tell us more will follow.

Production also goes north. Yields and crack-outs remain a concern. We often hear that 3.2 tonne to hectare is industry standard, but at 62,000 bearing hectares and intakes that hover around 150 to 160, we have some work to do.

Professor Abe Padilla will bring some interesting insights to the almond economics showing up in California during his presentation. We are working with Abe on a customised almond industry course to upskill existing employees on a whole range of aspects including price modelling and logistical efficiencies.

I said before that an estimated 40 per cent of current plantings need to be replaced in the next 5-10 years.

The question remains unanswered – what variety-rootstock combination do we plant.

Pollination security – will varroa wipe out commercial hives. I have had serious concerns about the long-term security and affordability of pollinating the almond crop. At our recent pollination committee meeting Australian Honey Industry CEO Danny le Feurve suggested that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Some good news at last.

Water – can the industry afford to have more water taken from the consumptive pool in the Murray-Darling Basin and how do we defend our social license to grow?

So the long-term fundamentals look sound and supply-demand has the market in positive territory about the challenges above.

Protecting the industry’s social licence

How do we control our destiny?

Growth – while we have long contested that ongoing development downstream from the Barmah Choke will accentuate deliverability issues, the industry footprint has doubled. Admittedly much of that growth has occurred in the Riverina and Goulburn.

More are gravitating to almonds – and why wouldn’t they.

The southern Murray-Darling Basin is perfect almond growing country. The product itself is non-perishable, tasty, good for you and versatile – what more could you want. The nut for all occasions and no market access issues.

We have a great story to tell.

Are almonds thirsty? How often have we heard that.

Answer the question with a fact-filled question.

What do you mean by that? Do you know that 72 per cent of all water in the Murray-Darling Basin is reserved for environmental purposes. Do you know that the biggest owner of water is the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder? Do you realise water statistics don’t tell the whole story? Australian almond producers are world leaders in water-use efficiency.

These are the sort of pub lines we need to get out there.

Advocacy is a resource-hungry area that has emerged as our social license has been challenged, especially in dry times. The board recognise the utmost importance of this and we continue to knock on the doors of Parliament and take part in water management roundtables wherever possible to re-educate and advocate on behalf of growers.

The socio-economic benefits of almonds continue to grow and is a prime example of optimising the value of water for all – those who sell it, those who use it and those who live in the surrounding communities.

We face a tough year ahead.

The Murray-Darling Basin Plan review recommendations come out in December. The Water Act Review recommendations are due next year.

We live in a political landscape where there are extremes to the left and right. We know that the answer lies in the middle with common sense and pragmatism, but also understand we risk standing in a crossfire. So the plan is build war-chest, lobby where necessary and develop a narrative that incorporates communities, councils, allied industries and growers across the basin, who all understand that a thriving riverine system needs to strike a balance that recognises that the best custodians of stewardship are often those with the most to gain.

It occurs to us that if market mechanisms like carbon credits and reef credits can be implemented to incentivise better behaviour, then the basin could follow suit. A basin credit for planting trees to sequest carbon, installing fishscreens, eradicating carp, reducing run-off, or using water for environmental benefits on private land could all be examples that qualify for basin credit, that generates economic stimulus and can underpin an improved environment.

We live in a world where most governments are in debt. If action is left to tax dollars alone, then we will always fall short. Look at Victora at the moment, they haven’t got enough money to fill potholes let alone complete overdue SDLAM projects to recover water. But if that work attracted a credit, then the work can start to self-fund.

Tackling pests and preparing for replanting

Insect damage – especially through carpophilus beetle – remains a red hot issue.

We simply can’t quantify how much it is costing, but it could be in the millions. We have some wonderful work being done by AgVic on establishing a beetle trap that is already a stunning success for monitoring. It is hoped it will morph into an attract and kill tool, but there is already concession that this will not be a silver bullet. Identifying complimentary measures, like targeted chemical control methods, better understanding the life cycle of the beetle and exploring biological controls, remain areas where more work needs to be done. As some have suggested, if we are losing millions, then we might need to make a call for the first time in history and establish a fighting fund to get results on some of these fronts sooner rather than later. There will be more to come on this in the near future.

There is a re-planting boom coming.

If we go into dry, owners will be replacing big old trees to reduce their water consumption.

With prices the way they are now, no-one is going to knock any productive tree out of the ground. Cash is king after three or four lean years in the early 2020s.

It is not the place of the board to advocate for one variety over another. Science will play its part and we have established a single block comparison trial of seven self-fertile varieties at our experimental orchard to kick the conversation along.

The cost of bees has strategists favouring self-fertile varieties, but so many are not tested in Australian conditions.

Quality trees for the next generation

What my directors do know is that whatever trees are planted, they need to be propagated from  virus-free budwood material.

This remains the single biggest risk regardless of variety and rootstock.

Cheap trees are cheap for reason.

The Almond Board has successfully run an industry-wide cost recovery budwood program for more than two decades. At one point more than 80 per cent of trees planted in the industry came from ABA budwood. In more recent times that has significantly dipped and problems have arisen.

This is not a new conversation, but there are a lot of new players in the room.

There are any number of issues that can occur with trees propagated on the cheap from source material too far from the mother tree. We know it happens, but we also know the long-term risks on yield and tree health.

The question remains – a tree is a 25-year investment. For the sake of a few cents saved, how much will you cost yourself over the life of that tree in lost yields and poor health?

Following a number of discussions with nurseries, and I thank them all, there is general consensus that the certified budwood program conducted by the ABA provides the most cost-efficient path to ensure the industry’s next generation of trees are as productive as possible. Our buds cost 92 cents each. Each tree will come with a virus-tested ABA certification. We believe the revamped program, which will feature traceability and validation, will provide our nurseries with a quality assurance that will flow through to the value of a newly established orchard.

Benchmarking for better results

Growers are forever trying to benchmark their operation.

It doesn’t matter whether you have 10 hectares or 1000. Growers want to know if they are paying too much, not yielding enough, over-feeding, under-watering.

The first industry-wide benchmarking project with our colleagues at RMCG has also begun. The take up for the project has exceeded expectation, so we are now looking at building statistics for each region with more growers than we had ever hoped for. Thanks for those who have jumped on board.

The beauty of benchmarking is everyone wins.

You cannot manage what you can’t measure.

The participants will get specialist feedback from experienced benchmarks, the regions develop their own geographic benchmarks and then the industry has aggregated data that can be used to defend and promote through advocacy at the highest levels of government.

It will help fuel our drive to improve the cost of production and target the controllable factors with further research and training.

The ABA has always taken great pride in the trust growers place in its peak industry to be the custodian of so much sensitive data. We guard that with our lives knowing that with better data, the better the industry is for everyone.

Collaboration at home and overseas

That spirit of collaboration also extends overseas.

We are delighted to have such an esteemed group of Californian almond delegates with us. Thank you Clarice Turner, the president and CEO of the Almond Board of California, for making the trip down under. We face many of the same challenges and where possible research can clean two seasons of data in one calendar year by our research network teaming up to fast-track answers to the burning questions of issues like carpophilus and other pests and diseases. We know that it hasn’t been easy for Californian almond growers for a range of reasons and would like to think we can tackle some of these issues side by side.

A united industry

Finally I would like to acknowledge the efforts of our ABA staff.

A quick check in the other day showed that there is currently 70 representative bodies operating within the Australian wine industry.

With that many, getting consensus can’t be easy.

The almond industry has one representative body. And that makes a difference. When we speak, we speak on behalf of you all. If we believe a project needs to be prioritised, we have the advisory process and track record to be heard.

We have eight grower directors, and four marketers all active and engaged in making us better.

Across offices in Griffith, Mildura, Loxton and Adelaide, I have a small, dedicated team who go above and beyond repeatedly to deliver against the expectations of our project outcomes and outputs, and ultimately for growers and processors.

Since we last stood here we have successfully established a Best Management Practice portal, now rebadged as Almond360. It features modules that growers can measure themselves against industry standards and identify gaps and opportunities to improve.

Just as we flagged two years ago we have launched a benchmarking project.

We have underpinned a grower-owned and operated experimental orchard with a sustainable funding model that recognises the need to contain an element of self-sufficiency.

We oversee and advise on 30 industry specific research and development projects.

We host field days, information sessions, produce fact sheets, platforms and training sessions all in the name of making the industry as competitive as possible.

The industry is big and strong and growing by the day, but we should never forget how we got here. By remaining collaborative, setting high standards and always looking to improve. Maintaining control of our destiny remains the key.