What stage of the almond season are we at?
For many almond growers harvest wrapped up before Easter. Almond crops are making their way to processing facilities with some still being stockpiled on farm. Over the next few months trees will begin to lose their leaves and enter a dormancy phase. Growers should be focusing on orchard hygiene, as unharvested nuts can provide a food source for Carob Moth and Carpophilus Beetle.
Were growers confident in the volume and quantity from this season’s harvest?
The Almond Board of Australia has received consistent reports from growers and processors that hot dry conditions throughout the growing season and post-bloom frosts in September have contributed to a downgraded crop outlook. The Australian almond crop for 2025-26 looks set to be down by at least 10-20 per cent on the industry’s initial expectations with the ABA set to provide a 2025 harvest update later this year, once all of the crop has been processed.
Demand for Australian almonds seems to be increasing in key overseas markets like India?
Australian almonds have experienced a boom 2024-25 selling season with volumes up 29 per cent to an unprecedented 169,541 tonnes (kernel weight equivalent). This represents an estimated sales value in excess of $1 billion. Domestic sales have emerged from the doldrums, returning to pre-Covid levels while a 35 per cent increase in exports has driven the record figures for the March-February selling year. Exports to China are up 128 per cent and for the first time Australian almonds held to biggest market share despite being only 10 per cent of world supply. The Australian-China free trade agreement that came into play in 2017 and ongoing trade friction between USA and China continues to prompt Chinese buyers to identify Australian almonds as an appealing alternate source to Californian almonds. Industry inshell exports increased to 79,696 tonnes, well ahead of the previous biggest annual total of 50,673 tonnes. More than 98 per cent of this volume was shipped to China and India. The industry’s diversification strategy also appears to be bearing fruit in South-East Asia with pleasing increases in volumes into targeted markets like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The total volume sold exceeded the 2024 crop intake (153,550) which indicates that processors took the opportunity to clear a lot of older inventory into key manufacturing markets like Turkiye (up 12 per cent and now a significant market to lower grade material).
Do American tariffs present any opportunities for Australian almond exports?
Australian almond growers are poised to benefit from the trade war between the United States and China, with our local industry now enjoying a major advantage. The changing geo-political landscape is providing Australian almonds growers with a fresh opportunity to leverage the existing free trade agreement with China. The USA’s decision to impose hefty levies on imports from China was met with reciprocal tariffs, at the end of April Californian almond growers were facing 125 per cent tariffs. Those punitive tariffs provide Australian almond growers with an increased advantage in one of the world’s largest almond markets. The trade agreements our federal governments have delivered have made a huge difference to grower returns. The retaliatory tariffs tend to accentuate that advantage. Just like China, if there are advantages in certain countries as a result of retaliatory tariffs being imposed on US product, market forces will inevitably direct buyers toward supply sources where the import costs are cheaper.
How have dry conditions since the start of the year impacted trees?
The dry conditions enabled the almond harvest to occur with few interruptions. This also means that the Australian almond industry is likely to have more inshell product to sell this season.
Will water allocation security be a benefit for Riverland growers this year?
Growers are always keeping an eye on water allocations for the coming year. South Australian growers will be pleased that the projected minimum opening allocation for the 2025-26 water year is 100%. Heavy rainfall in northern Australia earlier this year is making its way from the upper Murray Darling Basin into the Menindee Lakes. Local rainfall would also be gratefully received.
What factors are most important to tree health at this stage?
Growers will be thinking about their nutrition programs, to ensure their trees come out of dormancy ready for a good growing season.